The 95th Oscars: On Paternal Tides
Credits: Oscar image by Polich Tallix, Everything Everywhere all at Once, property of A24, Top Gun: Maverick, property of Paramount. Editing by Andrew Eisenman.
In just a few days, the stars and star makers will assemble in the Dolly Theater to answer one question: Who will save the movies?
In 2020, the American film industry was a Jenga tower, stacking higher and higher, leaving gaps unaddressed in pursuit of profit, until COVID-19 pulled the wrong piece. Now, we are living in the moments between when the tower tips and the board is reset. It is also the time of a generational changing of the guard as the youngest Baby Boomers and oldest Gen-X’ers retire, the Millenials and Gen-Z move up in our offices, our governments, and our culture. A time of change, reflected in the themes of this year’s films, the year of Paternal Tides.
The Fablemans, Everything Everywhere All At Once, Top Gun: Maverick, To Leslie, Petite Maman, Utama, Lightyear, Wakanda Forever, The Whale, The Woman King, The Batman, Turning Red, Women Talking, The Banshees of Inisherin, Broker, two Pinnochio’s, Till, Tár, The Way of Water, Nope, Armageddon Time, Aftersun, I could go on and on listing films popular and critical that revolve around one key dynamic: As generations change, what does each generation owe the other?
The pandemic forced us all to confront our own mortality in an environment where differences in opinion meant a difference in safety. With the changing of the guard already in the air, this environment has challenged filmmakers to look at their own relationships with their parents and their own children, examining how much of the previous generation’s legacy is worth honoring and what kind of legacy they want to leave for those who come behind. For many of our great masters, and some new ones, this has led to films about childhood and others about the history of films, both often love letters to cinemas.
At the Academy Luncheon, Spielberg told Tom Cruise he may have saved the movie business, but the predicted bursting of the streaming business would likely still have come regardless, probably. A24’s domination of film culture has been noticeably focused on theatrical and Blu-Ray, with streaming rights shifting month to month to the highest bidder. And yet, as Brendan Cronenburg’s recent media tour for Infinity Pool revealed, not all of the young auteurs of our day are sold on the theatrical experience.
The pandemic accelerated the danger to theaters and the over-extension of the streamers, but the end was always coming, and the credit for that is a big focus of this year’s Hollywood narrative. Still, I wonder if that’s not as transparent a narrative as we’re led to believe.
Looking at the 2022 nominees, we see classical stylists like Spielberg and Cruise taking huge, fine-tuned swings while. We see new artists like the Daniels and Charlotte Wells wielding genre-bending style and a messy flair to bring audiences, and incredibly vulnerable stories, to theaters in a way we haven’t seen before. The new age of internet filmmakers is here, and they are earnest, they are maximalist, and they are deconstructing the world their parents made for them. The paternal tides are rising.
HOW TO WATCH
All Best Picture contenders are returning to theaters through March 12th at Regal Cinemas, with various other showtimes at AMC, Alamo Drafthourse, and other theater chains including independent theaters. Check Fandango.com for showtimes near you.
The Oscars will broadcast at 8 p.m. EST/ 5 PST on ABC on March 12th, 2022.
Don’t forget to set your clocks on the 11th, some maniac decided to make the 12th the first day of spring forward.
Personally, I’m trying to throw an Oscar viewing party with food, trophy-shaped cookies, Oscar Bingo (predicting events on Oscar Night), and a contest for the closest Oscar ballot.
We’ve provided a free ERGO-themed Oscar Ballot right here for you to try yourself!
THE NOMINEES AND PREDICTIONS
The Academy voting period was from March 2nd at 9 am PST to March 7th, 5 pm PST.
From now until awards day, the trades will be full of anonymous voters discussing their picks, but they can be an inconsistent, scandalous look at the Oscars race, often curated by editors for maximum clickbait and controversy. In 2021 one anonymous ballot had betting boards in chaos for fear of a last-minute Penelope Cruz win, others have inflamed discussions around the Oscars-So-White movement with angry, white voters ranting against filmmakers of color under the seal of anonymity.
Here at Ergo, we’re offering a more honest and reliable counter-program: my personal opinions.
SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)
THE BOY, THE MOLE, THE FOX AND THE HORSE
Charlie Mackesy and Matthew Freud
AppleTV+
THE FLYING SAILOR
Amanda Forbis and Wendy Tilby
The New Yorker YouTube Channel
ICE MERCHANTS
João Gonzalez and Bruno Caetano
New Yorker YouTube Channel
MY YEAR OF DICKS
Sara Gunnarsdóttir and Pamela Ribon
Vimeo
AN OSTRICH TOLD ME THE WORLD IS FAKE AND I THINK I BELIEVE IT
Lachlan Pendragon
Vimeo
We’re starting with the Animated Shorts because, notably this year, every animated short feels worthy of the Oscar without any analysis of why. Where live-action shorts can sometimes show their budget, each animated short here feels as big as it wants to be.
On top of that, this collection of shorts meshed together into a cohesive body of work. A shared conversation about how to react to the time at hand, they provide a healing balm for the current worries, a celebration of life, nature, and family, collectively railing against the wheels of commerce, random tragedy, and isolation.
My favorite is Ice Merchants, the story of a grieving father and son risking their lives to farm ice on a mountainside. It’s one of the coolest things I’ve ever seen, an innovative use of perspective elevates this story about…perspective. And speaking of innovation, An Ostrich Told Me the World is Fake And I Think I Believe It is yet another entry in a wave of innovative stop-motion in this past year’s films, bringing a new point of view to the 4th wall and stop-motion, finding a new layer to go deeper than bigger films cut from the same cloth.
Ultimately though, I expect The Boy, The Mole, The Fox and The Horse will probably win this category. It’s by far the longest of the category, clocking in at 34 minutes, giving it many more opportunities to burry into a voter’s mind. It also has the backing of Apple, who surprised the world last year with an underdog Best Picture win for CODA. But I think that’s a shame, because this film, while masterfully made, is a symphony of platitudes, and other films in this category say more with less.
The Flying Sailor, for example, is a true masterpiece, a perfect employment of one of the things that makes cinema so special: the ability to magnify importance. Here the true story of a sailor from 1917, and a small event that lasted bare seconds, becomes a 7-minute film about what it means to live. But, the Oscars race is a campaign, not an oracle, and the prize is almost certainly going to The Boy, The Mole, The Fox, and the Horse.
My prediction: The Boy, The Mole, The Fox, and the Horse
My Choice: Ice Merchants
Current Favorite on DraftKings: The Boy, The Mole, The Fox, and the Horse
SHORT FILM (LIVE-ACTION)
AN IRISH GOODBYE
Tom Berkeley and Ross White
Select Theaters
IVALU
Anders Walter and Rebecca Pruzan
Rent on Amazon Prime Video
LE PUPILLE
Alice Rohrwacher and Alfonso Cuarón
Disney+
NIGHT RIDE
Eirik Tveiten and Gaute Lid Larssen
The New Yorker Youtube Channel
THE RED SUITCASE
Cyrus Neshvad
Select Theaters
Like the Animated shorts, the Live-Action also plants a flag in defiance of the times we live in, albeit with much less tonal consistency as a body of submissions.
From the tale of young indigenous women trying to grow up in a post-MeToo world to the rise of Christian Nationalism in many countries, these shorts rage against the manufactured powerlessness of women and those who love them in our current moment. Vacillating between deathly serious thrillers to lampooning, dark comedies, they are all one thing: mad.
The Red Suitcase I think deserves particular attention, a thriller about a young Muslim girl arriving at an airport alone to meet her arranged husband. The performances are moving, and most importantly, my heart beat fast. It’s difficult in a short film to capture fear or suspense with the time you have, yet the handheld camera work operated on my heart like a master surgeon, panning and tracking and zooming exactly when it needed to with an ending I still haven’t figured out the technicalities of. It’s great.
Le Pupille however, is a lock for the category. Housed on Disney+, it’s the easiest to find, it’s the longest, it has backers like Disney, Alfonso Corleon and Robert Rodriguez are campaigning for it, and most importantly, it’s really, really funny. God it’s funny. This delightful, irreverent film sees young Orphan girls in wartime Italy try to have the best Christmas they can, no matter what the Mussolini-loyal Catholic Nuns do to stop them. This film remembers something we’ve forgotten in a lot of child-centric films: kids are hilarious. The little Italian orphan girls are an unstoppable force, and you should do yourself a favor and let them make you laugh.
My prediction: Le Pupille
My Choice: The Red Suitcase
Current Favorite on DraftKings: An Irish Goodbye (up by only +50 against Le Pupille)
DOCUMENTARY SHORT FILM
THE ELEPHANT WHISPERERS
Kartiki Gonsalves and Guneet Monga
Netflix
HAULOUT
Evgenia Arbugaeva and Maxim Arbugaev
The New Yorker YouTube Channel
HOW DO YOU MEASURE A YEAR?
Jay Rosenblatt
Select Theaters
THE MARTHA MITCHELL EFFECT
Anne Alvergue and Beth Levison
Netflix
STRANGER AT THE GATE
Joshua Seftel and Conall Jones
The New Yorker YouTube Channel
One of the categories most worth your time every year, I’ve saved it for last and will be completing it this week as we approach the ceremony. For what I think of the rest of them, you can check my letterboxd in a few days, but as someone who has spent the better part of the last 2 years researching Richard Nixon, I will say that The Martha Mitchell Effect was pretty good. What makes the Documentary Short Films special every year is what makes other shorts like The Flying Sailor so powerful: cinema’s ability to create importance and emphasis. Martha Mitchell is too often forgotten in the Watergate Narrative, and 2022 saw both this documentary and the Starz limited series Gaslit where she is inexplicably played by Julia Roberts.
While I’m still getting to the rest, my ear on the ground has heard everybody and their mother raving about The Elephant Whisperers, which I’m sure Netlix is thrilled about, but also, it’s on Netlix, so that may be why people are talking about it. They’ve actually seen it. And so have I, it’s absolutely wonderful. A real treat that captures some of the most precious moments between people who love each other all year.
I suspect that the documentary about a military veteran who plans to attack a mosque until a confrontation changes everything, Stranger at the Gate, will probably be my favorite from what I’ve seen.
My prediction: The Elephant Whispers
My Choice (intuition): Stranger at the Gate
Current Favorite on DraftKings: The Elephant Whisperers
SOUND
ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT
Viktor Prášil, Frank Kruse, Markus Stemler, Lars Ginzel and Stefan Korte
Select Theaters; Netlfix
AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER
Julian Howarth, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Dick Bernstein, Christopher Boyes,
Gary Summers and Michael Hedges
Select Theaters
THE BATMAN
Stuart Wilson, William Files, Douglas Murray and Andy Nelson
HBOmax; 4k Blu-Ray, Blu-Ray, DVD, Digital Purchase
ELVIS
David Lee, Wayne Pashley, Andy Nelson and Michael Keller
Select Theaters; HBOmax; 4k Blu-Ray, Blu-Ray, DVD, Digital Purchase
TOP GUN: MAVERICK
Mark Weingarten, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Chris Burdon and Mark Taylor
Select Theaters; Paramount+; 4k Blu-Ray, Blu-Ray, DVD, Digital Purchase
Sound is the most important part of a film. If the sound doesn’t work, there’s no saving any performances, scripts, or yes, even cinematography. The most beautiful image in the world could play, but if the sound isn’t right, your brain will be misaligned with the beauty in your eye. And The Batman has been all in on the sound campaign since its release. It may have been more generally praised for its cinematography and screenplay, but Warner Brothers has been adamant for just a few days short of a year that the film’s real asset was its score and its Sound. I suspect it’ll take the trophy.
Yet, I had the opportunity to see all of these but All Quiet on the Western Front in a theater, and if I had my way, I think it would go to Elvis or Top Gun: Maverick. The roaring of the jets in Imax was one of the greatest parts of the experience, but the way the Elvis team mixed in echoes of his voice and music to create the feeling that the theater itself was haunted by the memory of Elvis - I’m still not over it.
My prediction: The Batman
My Choice: Elvis
Current Favorite on DraftKings: Top Gun: Maverick
FILM EDITING
THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN
Mikkel E.G. Nielsen
Select Theaters; HBOmax; Blu-Ray, DVD, Digital Purchase
ELVIS
Matt Villa and Jonathan Redmond
Select Theaters; HBOmax; 4k Blu-Ray, Blu-Ray, DVD, Digital Purchase
EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE
Paul Rogers
Select Theaters; Paramount+; 4k Blu-Ray, Blu-Ray, DVD, Digital Purchase
TÁR
Monika Willi
Select Theaters; Peacock; 4k Blu-Ray, Blu-Ray, DVD, Digital Purchase
TOP GUN: MAVERICK
Eddie Hamilton
Select Theaters; Paramount+; 4k Blu-Ray, Blu-Ray, DVD, Digital Purchase
Every single film in this category deserves the win. The Banshees of Inisherin is perfectly paced, and even snuck in a jump across the 180 Degree line in editing serves as a perfect example of what it looks like to break the rules the right way. EEAAO and Elvis are both maximalist editing hurricanes, the stories injected into your arm right below the elbow, montage and cross-cutting cranked to a tight 11. Top Gun: Maverick doesn’t miss a single step while running in the sky, and Tár…Tár is a dream. I love that film, and every element of it is in full harmony with the rest, editing included. The hard cut to Lydia Tár playing the accordion in anger is alone worthy of a trophy. However, if a film was going to be rewarded for editing and editing alone, I think it’s Elvis that fits the description. In my own life and listening to coverage all year, two things are mentioned about this film without fail: Austin Butler and the Editing.
EEAAO is nominated for 11 Oscars, and it’s been in the lead for so long, it’s bound to drop a few due to backlash. Editing is one of those categories I see as most likely to drop.
My prediction: Elvis
My Choice: Everything Everywhere All At Once
Current Favorite on DraftKings: Everything Everywhere All At Once
VISUAL EFFECTS
ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT
Frank Petzold, Viktor Müller, Markus Frank and Kamil Jafar
Select Theaters; Netlfix
AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER
Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett
Select Theaters
THE BATMAN
Dan Lemmon, Russell Earl, Anders Langlands and Dominic Tuohy
HBOmax; 4k Blu-Ray, Blu-Ray, DVD, Digital Purchase
BLACK PANTHER: WAKANDA FOREVER
Geoffrey Baumann, Craig Hammack, R. Christopher White and Dan Sudick
Disney+; 4k Blu-Ray, Blu-Ray, DVD, Digital Purchase
TOP GUN: MAVERICK
Ryan Tudhope, Seth Hill, Bryan Litson and Scott R. Fisher
Select Theaters; Paramount+; 4k Blu-Ray, Blu-Ray, DVD, Digital Purchase
It’s going to be Avatar: The Way of Water.
My prediction: Avatar: The Way of Water
My Choice: Avatar: The Way of Water
Current Favorite on DraftKings: Avatar: The Way of Water
PRODUCTION DESIGN
ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT
Production Design: Christian M. Goldbeck; Set Decoration: Ernestine Hipper
Select Theaters; Netlfix
AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER
Production Design: Dylan Cole and Ben Procter; Set Decoration: Vanessa Cole
Select Theaters
BABYLON
Production Design: Florencia Martin; Set Decoration: Anthony Carlino
Select Theaters, Paramount+; Digital Purchase
ELVIS
Production Design: Catherine Martin and Karen Murphy; Set Decoration: Bev Dunn
Select Theaters; HBOmax; 4k Blu-Ray, Blu-Ray, DVD, Digital Purchase
THE FABELMANS
Production Design: Rick Carter; Set Decoration: Karen O'Hara
Select Theaters; Digital Purchase
A big year for shooting on sets or location compared to the recent past, Avatar: The Way of Water manages to be a big contender here, and I’ve half a mind to say it deserves to be the favorite, but the line between Visual Effects and every other category it’s entered in is so blurred, I don’t see it standing out in any other technical category. The Cinematography nominations made that very clear.
I think this fight is between Babylon and All Quiet on the Western Front. As a member of the Babylon Hive, I am fully of the mind that Babylon deserves to be in the conversation for every single award in this ceremony, but as the great Michael J. Fox once said, “... your kids are gonna love it.” All Quiet on the Western Front is spoken about often in an awed tone, the only production design I’ve seen this year that generates the question, “How’d they do that?”
I personally think that Babylon’s near-shutout in the Oscars is a more important mystery, but it’s not the one at the heart of this category.
My prediction: All Quiet on the Western Front
My Choice: Babylon, every time.
Current Favorite on DraftKings: Florencia Martin; Set Decoration: Anthony Carlino for Babylon
COSTUME DESIGN
BABYLON
Mary Zophres
Select Theaters, Paramount+; Digital Purchase
BLACK PANTHER: WAKANDA FOREVER
Ruth Carter
Disney+; 4k Blu-Ray, Blu-Ray, DVD, Digital Purchase
ELVIS
Catherine Martin
Select Theaters; HBOmax; 4k Blu-Ray, Blu-Ray, DVD, Digital Purchase
EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE
Shirley Kurata
Select Theaters; Paramount+; 4k Blu-Ray, Blu-Ray, DVD, Digital Purchase
MRS. HARRIS GOES TO PARIS
Jenny Beavan
Peacock; Blu-Ray, DVD, Digital Purchase
Ruth Carter already won an Oscar for her costume design in the 1st Black Panther film, and I don’t see a repeat as very likely.
If you paid attention to the last category, you know exactly who I’d pick, and this time, it’s also who I think is going to win. Babylon certainly has the most costumes of any film in this category, not just in quantity but in nature as well. Everything about Babylon is the most, and it deserves your fearful respect, like a caged animal. Of which the film features many.
Shoutout to Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris for being not only a big hit in my town, but also sneaking in there as a surprise nominee. If there’s an upset here, it’s realistically Elvis or EEAAO, but I’m happy to imagine a world where Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris is the secret #2 for this position.
My prediction: Mary Zophres for Babylon
My Choice: Babylon, yeah baby.
Current Favorite on DraftKings: Catherine Martin for Elvis
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT
Heike Merker and Linda Eisenhamerová
Select Theaters; Netlfix
THE BATMAN
Naomi Donne, Mike Marino and Mike Fontaine
HBOmax; 4k Blu-Ray, Blu-Ray, DVD, Digital Purchase
BLACK PANTHER: WAKANDA FOREVER
Camille Friend and Joel Harlow
Disney+; 4k Blu-Ray, Blu-Ray, DVD, Digital Purchase
ELVIS
Mark Coulier, Jason Baird and Aldo Signoretti
Select Theaters; HBOmax; 4k Blu-Ray, Blu-Ray, DVD, Digital Purchase
THE WHALE
Adrien Morot, Judy Chin and Annemarie Bradley
Select Theaters; Digital Purchase
If the 2017 Oscars taught us anything, this category is really a three-way battle between the Penguin from The Batman, Old and Tired Elvis, and Brendan Fraiser in The Whale. The Elvis looks a little surreal when it’s not moving, and between the others, I think the Whale is going to take this. It’s really hard to add a ton of weight to an actor’s face and not encumber their performance. Collin Ferrel solved this as the Penguin by going cartoonishly huge with his performance, but The Whale’s team managed to find a way to get out of Brendan Frasier’s way and use the makeup to draw focus to his performance, not obscure it.
My prediction: Adrien Morot, Judy Chin and Annemarie Bradley for The Whale
My Choice: Adrien Morot, Judy Chin and Annemarie Bradley for The Whale
Current Favorite on DraftKings: Mark Coulier, Jason Baird and Aldo Signoretti for Elvis
CINEMATOGRAPHY
ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT
James Friend
Select Theaters; Netlfix
BARDO, FALSE CHRONICLE OF A HANDFUL OF TRUTHS
Darius Khondji
Netlfix
ELVIS
Mandy Walker
Select Theaters; HBOmax; 4k Blu-Ray, Blu-Ray, DVD, Digital Purchase
EMPIRE OF LIGHT
Roger Deakins
HBOmax; 4k Blu-Ray, Blu-Ray, DVD, Digital Purchase
TÁR
Florian Hoffmeister
Select Theaters; Peacock; 4k Blu-Ray, Blu-Ray, DVD, Digital Purchase
A big discussion point around this year’s nominations was how weird Cinematography was. No Avatar, no Batman, no Fablemans, no Top Gun. Other films like Nope, Armageddon Time, Babylon, She Said, or Woman King that people thought might swing a nomination were shut out as well. But Bardo, A False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths and Empire of Light, both reviled by Critics and audiences alike, made it, and honestly, Empire of Light is the favorite in my opinion.
First of all, it was shot by the great Roger Deakins. Second, as an example, I picked up Cinematography’s January issue shortly after the voting had closed. Inside were long articles about She Said, Armageddon Time, Avatar: The Way of Water, etc. Each one has promo stills of the actors, or of the director and cinematographer on set. Avatar spent pages and pages telling you how it worked, if you could follow it, and shared a single image of what the camera rig looked like. In the Empire of Light article, Roger Deakins shared several of his lighting diagrams. That’s what this all came down to, Roger Deakins showed his work. A 5-second glance tells any working cinematographer how amazing his work was, but Russel Carpenter spent 4 paragraphs explaining how light moves through water.
My prediction: Roger Deakins for Empire of Light
My Choice: Armageddon Time
Current Favorite on DraftKings: All Quiet on the Western Front
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)
ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT
Volker Bertelmann
Select Theaters; Netlfix
BABYLON
Justin Hurwitz
Select Theaters, Paramount+; Digital Purchase
THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN
Carter Burwell
Select Theaters; HBOmax; Blu-Ray, DVD, Digital Purchase
EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE
Son Lux
Select Theaters; Paramount+; 4k Blu-Ray, Blu-Ray, DVD, Digital Purchase
THE FABELMANS
John Williams
Select Theaters; Digital Purchase
Babylon, Babylon, Babylon. It would make my day if Babylon took score, as its key sequence is set entirely to the incredible score, no dialogue, and that sequence is what makes the film, in my opinion, one of the great films of this time. I also adore the score to EEAAO, but the score everybody’s been talking about is All Quiet on the Western Front. A modern synth score for a film set in the trenches of the 1st World War, it’s controversial and incredibly effective. You cannot help but feel this story from the past is a modern warning, capable of happening in Europe tomorrow if world leaders aren’t careful and judicious. I immediately wished I could have seen it in a theater instead of on Netflix, but something tells me the professionals voting in this category have had no problem screening the film with audio setups capable of showing off its full strength.
Many were stunned when The Batman didn’t break into this category, but in my opinion, there simply wasn’t room by a count of 1.
My prediction: All Quiet on the Western Front
My Choice: Babylon
Current Favorite on DraftKings: Babylon
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)
APPLAUSE
from Tell It like a Woman; Music and Lyric by Diane Warren
Digital Purchase
HOLD MY HAND
from Top Gun: Maverick; Music and Lyric by Lady Gaga and BloodPop
Select Theaters; Paramount+; 4k Blu-Ray, Blu-Ray, DVD, Digital Purchase
LIFT ME UP
from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever; Music by Tems, Rihanna, Ryan Coogler and Ludwig Goransson; Lyric by Tems and Ryan Coogler
Disney+; 4k Blu-Ray, Blu-Ray, DVD, Digital Purchase
NAATU NAATU
from RRR; Music by M.M. Keeravaani; Lyric by Chandrabose
Select Theaters; Netflix, ZEE5 Global (where you can stream it in its original language, Telugu. Netflix has it dubbed in Hindi instead)
THIS IS A LIFE
from Everything Everywhere All at Once; Music by Ryan Lott, David Byrne and Mitski; Lyric by Ryan Lott and David Byrne
Select Theaters; Paramount+; 4k Blu-Ray, Blu-Ray, DVD, Digital Purchase
When nominations were announced, Tell it Like a Woman had under 50 views on Letterboxd if I remember correctly, and yet the anthology project is here, at the Oscars. That’s the power of song and Diane Warren baby. But the competition is really between Naatu Naatu and This is a Life. The rest of the competition are songs that play over the closing of the film, but these two are in it and contribute meaningfully to the entirety of the film. This is a Life is a motif throughout the film’s score, only played to completion once the narrative conflict is resolved. It’s powerful and it makes me cry, so it gets the nod from me. However, Naatu Naatu is the only song here that had crowds in packed theaters memorizing choreography and lyrics, turning big city screenings into wild dance parties. Nothing else has that momentum.
Notably, Lady Gag’s Hold My Hand was shortlisted for the Oscars, not OneRepublic’s I Ain’t Worried, the other original song from Top Gun: Maverick, which played over the shirtless football on the beach sequence in the film, a much more iconic moment than the closing of the film that Hold My Hand plays over, and I can’t help but wonder if the latter would have been a stronger contender in the last leg of the race.
All of these songs will be played at the Oscars, and This is a Life and Naatu Naatu will be highlights of the evening for sure. God Naatu Naatu live will be so fun.
My prediction: Naatu Naatu for RRR
My Choice: This is a Life for Everything Everywhere All at Once
Current Favorite on DraftKings: Naatu Naatu for RRR
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
BRENDAN GLEESON
The Banshees of Inisherin
Select Theaters; HBOmax; Blu-Ray, DVD, Digital Purchase
BRIAN TYREE HENRY
Causeway
AppleTV+
JUDD HIRSCH
The Fabelmans
Select Theaters; Digital Purchase
BARRY KEOGHAN
The Banshees of Inisherin
Select Theaters; HBOmax; Blu-Ray, DVD, Digital Purchase
KE HUY QUAN
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Select Theaters; Paramount+; 4k Blu-Ray, Blu-Ray, DVD, Digital Purchase
Every actor in this category rocked the house. Barry Keoghan in particular is doing something heartbreakingly sweet, and Ke Huy Quan’s line read about doing taxes is the maybe not the most rad or “hell yeah” line reading in film this year, but it is the most meaningful single piece of line reading all year. He’s going to win, and it’s not even up for discussion. He’s won pretty much every award he can since his return to the screen in EEAAO. He’s Short Round, he’s Waymond. He’s a national treasure that we as a nation failed.
That being said, the last performance I haven’t seen is Brian Tyree Henry, one of my favorite actors working today. I was holding out for a theatrical run for Causeway, but it didn’t materialize in my area even after the nominations, so I will be turning on this AppleTV+ film soon to celebrate this fellow North Carolinian.
My prediction: Key Huy Quan for Everything Everywhere All At Once
My Choice: Key Huy Quan for Everything Everywhere All At Once
Current Favorite on DraftKings: Key Huy Quan for Everything Everywhere All At Once
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
AUSTIN BUTLER
Elvis
Select Theaters; HBOmax; 4k Blu-Ray, Blu-Ray, DVD, Digital Purchase
COLIN FARRELL
The Banshees of Inisherin
Select Theaters; HBOmax; Blu-Ray, DVD, Digital Purchase
BRENDAN FRASER
The Whale
Select Theaters; Digital Purchase
PAUL MESCAL
Aftersun
Digital Purchase
BILL NIGHY
Living
Select Theaters; Digital Purchase
This should be Collin Farrel’s award, and it won’t be, and that is a crime that should be tried in The Hague. He turned out all-time performances as Penguin in The Batman, the lead in After Yang (which is what this nomination should actually be for), he’s supposedly the best part of Thirteen Lives, and the lead of The Banshees of Inisherin. Instead, the race has solidified about a new dreamboat star, and an old dreamboat action star, Austin Butler and Brendan Fraser.
Paul Mescal also turned out a star-solidifying performance with the single most heart-wrenching scene of the year, but he does not contribute to the totality of that power as much Butler and Fraiser do. Editing and sound mixing and direction are huge factors there. That being said, I think if you apply that same criteria to The Whale and Elvis, it’s Brendan Fraser who becomes the totality of his film. Elvis is a masterpiece of editing and direction just as much as Austin Butler channels the ghost of Elvis. But Brendan Fraser is maybe the only actor on earth who could make The Whale function on screen, and his comeback is just as great a story as Key Huy Quan. After his recent SAG win, I think he’s the favorite, and mine as well. Butler will also have to overcome the “he’ll have other chances” effect.
Bill Nighy would win in many other years, and the night out to Living with my younger sister was a highlight of my year. What a picture.
My prediction: Brendan Fraser for The Whale
My Choice: Brendan Fraser for the Whale
Current Favorite on DraftKings: Brendan Fraser for the Whale
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
ANGELA BASSETT
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Disney+; 4k Blu-Ray, Blu-Ray, DVD, Digital Purchase
HONG CHAU
The Whale
Select Theaters; Digital Purchase
KERRY CONDON
The Banshees of Inisherin
Select Theaters; HBOmax; Blu-Ray, DVD, Digital Purchase
JAMIE LEE CURTIS
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Select Theaters; Paramount+; 4k Blu-Ray, Blu-Ray, DVD, Digital Purchase
STEPHANIE HSU
Everything Everywhere All at Once
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Hong Chau is great in The Whale, but her nomination feels like one of those nominations that are really for something else, such as The Menu. I think her work definitely deserves recognition and she’s campaigning hard, but I don’t see her winning as very likely.
Likewise, Kerry Condon was incredible, but her BAFTA win is an outlier in the race, which has seen Jamie Lee Curtis, Stephanie Hsu, and Angela Basset trading wins. Curtis in fact was winning all of the awards until Stephanie Hsu did an interview where she wondered if she’ll be treated like Key Huy Quan was when he debuted and if this was her only shot, at which point voters started choosing her instead of Curtis, the correct choice in my opinion. The SAG awards recently awarded Curtis, but I am still of the mind that the Academy block will see Curtis and Hsu split the EEAAO vote.
Meanwhile, the Academy still remembers their embarrassing failure of an attempt to honor Chadwick Boseman, and with Angela Bassets’ excellent performance honoring his legacy coming with less baggage than Black Panther: Wakanda Forever itself, I expect her to easily secure her well-deserved Oscar.
In short, Angela Basset will do the thing.
My prediction: Angela Basset for Wakanda Forever
My Choice: Stephanie Hsu for Everything Everywhere All At Once
Current Favorite on DraftKings: Angela Basset for Wakanda Forever
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
CATE BLANCHETT
Tár
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ANA DE ARMAS
Blonde
Netflix
ANDREA RISEBOROUGH
To Leslie
Digital Purchase
MICHELLE WILLIAMS
The Fabelmans
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MICHELLE YEOH
Everything Everywhere All at Once
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The actress in a leading role category has managed to embroil itself in scandal, even though the two favorites have kept themselves almost entirely out of the mess.
I have not seen Blonde, because frankly, watching a floating fetus blame Ana De Armis for both an abortion and a miscarriage, is not something that I wish to engage in again (I was online when the clip came out). And I am not alone in that decision.
Michelle Williams, playing a version of Stephen Spielberg’s own mother, turned out an incredible performance worthy of an Oscar, but her entry in lead actress is controversial, as many, myself included, consider her the primary supporting player, not the lead. But she and Spielberg disagreed as they have every right to do. In the end, if they hadn’t, she probably would have swept the Best Supporting Actress role handily.
Andrea Riseborough, my heart goes out to. Her performance is worthy of recognition, and her nomination saved To Leslie from vanishing into history after an all-time failure by the distributor Momentum Pictures. However, this all seems to have come at the cost of at least one of the two great performances by women of color this year, Angela Davis in The Woman King and Danielle Deadwyler in Till, both of which were expected to receive nominations. A campaign ran by others, Andrea Riseborough and To Leslie successfully won recognition, but it’s probably infamy, not history, in which they will be remembered. That being said, there is worry of a reactionary, white voting block in the Academy that may push Andrea to an Oscar win over Michelle Yeoh, especially after Yeoh briefly posted an article to Instragam that argued that it was time for a woman of color, and not the white, 2-time-winner Cate Blanchett to win an Oscar. If this occurs, the infamy of Andrea Riseborough’s nomination would only increase.
Detailing the saga of this surprise nomination would take the length of this article, and I recommend Matthew Belloni’s initial deep dive if you’re curious to hear more about this year’s biggest Oscars controversy.
For almost a year, Michelle Yeoh has been running this race, and I think after the SAG awards, she will cross that finish line a winner. As Evelyn in EEAAO she plays one of the future great characters in film history, an Asian Immigrant mother denied the opportunities to fulfill her dreams, until one day, she finds herself at the center of a world-shifting story. Evelyn’s story is Michelle Yeoh’s story, and she plays it masterfully, delivering heartbreaking lines, performing action stunts and choreography, and inhabiting multiple characters on screen.
Her challenger is two-time Oscar winner Cate Blanchett, who as Lydia Tár appears on screen in the most convincing performance of a single character that I have ever seen. No matter what famous conductors who don’t understand how to watch movies say, Lydia Tár is not a real person, but I’ll be damned if I haven’t referred to her as one by accident on more than one occasion. I am fully of the belief that out of all the performances this year that won’t get the trophy, this is the one that people will always look back on and say “What happened? Why didn’t Lydia Tár receive an Oscar?” And then they’ll check who did, and they’ll see that it’s because while Cate Blanchett played one person, Michelle played many, and that’s what it comes down to. That, and the history-making and “It’s about time” of it all. I watch Oscar coverage like other guys watch football, and I’m going to be honest, I’m pretty sure even Cate Blanchett herself wants Michelle Yeaoh to win, at least a little bit.
My prediction: Michelle Yeoh for Everything Everywhere All At Once
My Choice: Michelle Yeoh for Everything Everywhere All At Once
Current Favorite on DraftKings: Michelle Yeoh for Everything Everywhere All At Once
WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT
Screenplay - Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson & Ian Stokell
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GLASS ONION: A KNIVES OUT MYSTERY
Written by Rian Johnson
Netflix
LIVING
Written by Kazuo Ishiguro
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TOP GUN: MAVERICK
Screenplay by Ehren Kruger and Eric Warren Singer and Christopher McQuarrie; Story by Peter Craig and Justin Marks
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WOMEN TALKING
Screenplay by Sarah Polley
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Rian Johnson’s ability to predict the Elon Musk of it all 1.5 years before Twitter was purchased is an incredible asset for him in this race, and Top Gun: Maverick is essentially a perfect screenplay, despite having passed through more hands than were present at the Last Supper. Its pacing is pitch-perfect, and the fact that this military film’s subtext isn’t about war, but about movie stars and the state of Hollywood right now is astonishing. Living is a great adaptation of one of the best films of all time, Ikiru, which itself is an adaptation of the Russian novella The Death of Ivan Ilyich by Tolstoy.
But Women Talking won the WGA, and with good reason. Many feature films in 2022 centered on women’s stories, such as Till, The Woman King, or one of my favorites, She Said. She Said is a film many were mixed on, but I found there to be a special power to how the film was a vehicle for each woman’s story, and not the abuser’s. Ashley Judd’s performance as herself in particular I thought had incredible metatextual power. Till made the choice not to show the death of Emmet Till in an effort to avoid re-traumatizing black audience members. She Said similarly chose to portray the events of the film through interviews and testimony, giving women control of the narrative. How we tell stories matters just as much as what stories we tell, and Sarah Polley put that into full effect in Women Talking’s screenplay.
In the novel, Ben Whishaw’s character August, the only grown man trusted by the women as they decide their fate, serves as the story’s narrator. In the adaption, Sarah Polley decided that not only was this unnecessary, but that when translated to the medium of film, it was overpowering and made this film about women and their own agency into a film defined by the male point of view. While the screenplay included this narration and some of it was recorded, it was easily removed to allow room for Kate Hallett’s character to narrate instead. It’s a testament to the power of Sarah Polley’s structure and dialogue that the film was complete without the content written for Ben Whishaw.
My prediction: Sarah Polley for Women Talking
My Choice: Rian Johnson for Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Current Favorite on DraftKings: Women Talking
WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN
Written by Martin McDonagh
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EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE
Written by Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert
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THE FABELMANS
Written by Steven Spielberg & Tony Kushner
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TÁR
Written by Todd Field
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TRIANGLE OF SADNESS
Written by Ruben Östlund
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Having now won the Writer’s Guild Award for Original Screenplay, it’s going to be EEAAO here as part of their sweep (prediction spoilers) because that’s just how these things go, but I could have seen either Tár or The Fablemans pulling out the win as the consolation prize. Especially The Fablemans. What Steven Spielberg did was a brave piece of art built on decades of lies to protect his family and the eyes of fame. To now hold confession so publicly and powerfully is a beautiful thing that many will want to reward, but not as many as those who love and admire EEAAO. On the campaign trail, Michelle Yeoh has talked at length about how she and the Daniels both made poster-board graphs to keep all the different realities in each scene in order, and that’s the kind of thing that becomes writing legend. EEAAO is original, complicated, cool, funny, and somehow, clear and heartfelt. All of the hardest things to do in a screenplay, let alone all at once.
My prediction: Everything Everywhere All At Once
My Choice: Everything Everywhere All At Once
Current Favorite on DraftKings: The Banshees of Inisherin
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE FILM
ALL THAT BREATHES
Shaunak Sen, Aman Mann and Teddy Leifer
HBOmax
ALL THE BEAUTY AND THE BLOODSHED
Laura Poitras, Howard Gertler, John Lyons, Nan Goldin and Yoni Golijov
Digital Puchase
FIRE OF LOVE
Sara Dosa, Shane Boris and Ina Fichman
Disney+, Hulu; Digital Puchase
A HOUSE MADE OF SPLINTERS
Simon Lereng Wilmont and Monica Hellström
Digital Purchase
NAVALNY
Daniel Roher, Odessa Rae, Diane Becker, Melanie Miller and Shane Boris
HBOmax
Another category I’ve been saving mostly for the end of the race, I’ve only seen Fire of Love, and yes, it was one of the best and most romantic pieces of non-fiction film I’ve experienced. Certainly Oscar-worthy. It also, at least in my area, had one of the best commercial runs of any of the documentary films, playing for several weeks in a row at many of our independent cinemas.
But playing inside baseball a little bit, my read is that while All That Breathes and All the Beauty and The Bloodshed are the best critically received, I think Navalny has it. It’s been picking up a good amount of awards on the road, and the Ukraine War is a big factor.
President Zelensky addressed the Grammys from Ukraine last year, and his biggest fan in Hollywood, Sean Penn, has been showing up in random places as a token of support. The Academy loves to look like it’s engaging with the issues of today (and this year, its films certainly are!), and Navalny is a documentary about Alexei Navalny, famously the imprisoned opponent of Vladimir Putin, who in 2021 survived assassination and bravely re-entered Russia after recovering from his coma.
I see this category as a big litmus test for the political state of the academy. Navalny is beloved around the world for his brave return and for being the enemy of Putin, but most people are only casually aware of him in this manner and don’t engage with his anti-ethnic, anti-immigrant, far-right Nationalism. He may believe that Russians have the right to vote, but he also believes that immigrants should be expelled from the country, so he’s not exactly for the right of everyone to vote, just the “real” Russians.
Will the Academy voting block parse this complexity, or will “man fight bad guy, must be good” prevail? It would in the Green Book’s Academy of the Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.
My prediction: Navalny
My Choice: Fire of Love
Current Favorite on DraftKings: Navalny
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
GUILLERMO DEL TORO'S PINOCCHIO
Guillermo del Toro, Mark Gustafson, Gary Ungar and Alex Bulkley
Netlfix
MARCEL THE SHELL WITH SHOES ON
Dean Fleischer Camp, Elisabeth Holm, Andrew Goldman, Caroline Kaplan and
Paul Mezey
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PUSS IN BOOTS: THE LAST WISH
Joel Crawford and Mark Swift
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THE SEA BEAST
Chris Williams and Jed Schlanger
Netflix
TURNING RED
Domee Shi and Lindsey Collins
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The most difficult and expressionistic use of cinema, animated movies aren’t just for kids, even if a lot of this year’s nominees are aimed at them. This year saw some great animated films for adults like the romantic drama Intragalactic, or Phil Tippet’s Mad God, which should have been the favorite in this race. After 30 years of work, it’s the least the Academy could have done considering what the man did for the Academy with works like Jurassic Park, Star Wars, and Starship Troopers owing their creative creature effects to him and his team. At least he inspired the best episode of Pokerface.
For a lot of the race, I’ve eyed The Sea Beast as a dark horse, but I think the smash success of Puss In Boots: The Last Wish (which sports an incredible portrayal of Death himself by Wagner Moura), has split that more populist vote.
At the Annie Awards, Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinnochio (not the live-action Disney film) won Best Animated Feature, and Marcel the Shell won Best Independent Animated Feature. The race is definitely between these two, and Guillermo Del Toro is maybe the best Oscar campaigner working in film today, so I’m going to have to say it’s a lock for him. The man got the Museum of Modern Art to turn his film into a major exhibit for god’s sake, the voters are walking in his film.
However, I want to take a moment to talk about Turning Red. It’s just as worthy a film as Pinnochio and Marcel, and I think if it had been given a proper release in theaters instead of being punted by now-ousted-for-being-an-idiot Disney CEO Bob Chapek to Disney+, it would have been not only one of the most successful films at the Box Office, but it might even have won. That 3rd act Kaiju fight would have had a very different place in the cultural memory if it had first occurred on the big screen. The director Domee Shi is only 33 years old, and not only does she already have an Oscar for her animated short Bao, but I’m of the opinion that she even deserved a Best Director nomination, none of which are women this year after several years of representation in a row. And if I can let you in on a little secret not a lot of people seem to have picked up on, she’s finally on the campaign trail, and she’s almost as good at it as Guillermo Del Toro. And she’s only 33. I’m calling it now, her next film is grabbing that Oscar, and if it doesn’t, the one after that will.
My prediction: Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinnochio
My Choice: Mad God (it’d be Guillermo Del Toro’s choice too if it was in the running)
Current Favorite on DraftKings: Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinnochio
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT
Germany
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ARGENTINA, 1985
Argentina
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CLOSE
Belgium
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EO
Poland
The Criterion Channel
THE QUIET GIRL
Ireland
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All Quiet on the Western Front is going to win and that’s that. It’s a war film, it’s the only contender also nominated for Best Picture which it won’t win so people will say “I can vote for it here instead” (See: Drive My Car last year), and more importantly: it’s on Netflix.
EO was my favorite lens kit of the year, and after the major push its distributor Janus Films, which owns Criterion and is beloved across the industry, has given it, I think it’s #2, and the closest thing All Quiet has to a challenger. But speaking of quiet, The Quiet Girl is out in American theaters now, and it is so, so wonderful. The story of a quiet, verbally abused Irish girl who has to live with her mom’s cousin for the summer, it’s got everything you want in a movie. You’ll laugh, you’ll cry, you’ll want to hug your mom and dad. It’s a really special film, and we need more like it.
My prediction: All Quiet on the Western Front
My Choice: The Quiet Girl
Current Favorite on DraftKings: All Quiet on the Western Front
DIRECTING
THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN
Martin McDonagh
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EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert
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THE FABELMANS
Steven Spielberg
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TÁR
Todd Field
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TRIANGLE OF SADNESS
Ruben Östlund
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Last year, the award for Best Director broke with its pattern of going to the Best Picture winner, and went to Jane Campion for Power of the Dog. Considering how much of the magic of Everything Everywhere All At Once was the cast, I’ve been on the mind that voters would give the award to Spielberg instead for The Fablemans. The choice of Jane Campion last year felt like this new, younger voting block at the Academy wanted to have their cake and eat it too, which is consistently the problem with Oscars voting. There’s just so much great work to reward.
But then the Daniels went and won the DGA award for Best Director. To me, this reads as a recognition of what the VFX industry failed to recognize: The Visual Effects team on Everything Everywhere All At Once was 7 people plus each of the Daniels chipping in. They are the only directors on this list besides Todd Field that I believe have ever learned After Effects, and he certainly is still using a purchased license and is not paying for the Creative Cloud subscription. That’s just not his vibe. That makes the Daniels the only filmmakers in Directing that also actively participated in the creation of their effects, and that’s why I think they’re going to win it.
Noticeably, James Cameron has been left out of this category, and for the same reason that I speculate the Daniels are edging out Spielberg, James Cameron deserves to have won this category. What he has done with each Avatar film is revolutionize filmmaking, and when he does it, it’s for the better. The man owns patents. Camera patents. He has a camera named after him. Overall, I think he’s been left out for the same reason the Lord of the Rings trilogy had to wait until the 3rd entry to win it’s Oscars - people always assume there will be another chance. But if the tragic losses of Better Call Saul at the Emmys have taught us anything, you have to make sure you don’t wait too long.
My prediction: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinhert for Everything Everywhere All At Once
My Choice: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinhert for Everything Everywhere All At Once (but also James Cameron for Avatar: The Way of Water)
Current Favorite on Draftking: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinhert for Everything Everywhere All At Once
BEST PICTURE
ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT
Malte Grunert, Producer
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AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER
James Cameron and Jon Landau, Producers
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THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN
Graham Broadbent, Pete Czernin and Martin McDonagh, Producers
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ELVIS
Baz Luhrmann, Catherine Martin, Gail Berman, Patrick McCormick and Schuyler Weiss, Producers
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EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE
Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert and Jonathan Wang, Producers
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THE FABELMANS
Kristie Macosko Krieger, Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner, Producers
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TÁR
Todd Field, Alexandra Milchan and Scott Lambert, Producers
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TOP GUN: MAVERICK
Tom Cruise, Christopher McQuarrie, David Ellison and Jerry Bruckheimer, Producers
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TRIANGLE OF SADNESS
Erik Hemmendorff and Philippe Bober, Producers
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WOMEN TALKING
Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner and Frances McDormand, Producers
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Here we are. The big one, the only one normal people remember, the one that makes the newsstands. This category was expanded to 10 slots over the last few years, first optionally, then as a requirement, with the goal of increasing representation. The result is one of the healthiest Best Picture lineups in a long, long time. It’s not perfect, I think realistically The Woman King or Nope should have made it on here instead of Triangle of Sadness, and Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinnochio tried really hard to break in as recognition for animation, and man, Armageddon Time and Babylon deserve entry too. Especially Babylon. Basically, I love all these films, but I’m a little miffed that Triangle of Sadness made it in, when it’s ranked #43 for me on my ranked list for 2022 releases that I saw in 2022.
I’m going to break down all 10 entries, but first, my personal top 10 for the year would be
Everything Everywhere All At Once
Avatar: The Way of Water
Petite Maman
Nope
Tár
The Fablemans
Armageddon Time
Top Gun: Maverick
Babylon
Banshees of Inisherin
Babylon should have been a top contender, but its desire to overwhelm you turned people off. I think of all the movies about movies this year, it hits the same theme feeling as The Fablemans does, but from the other way around the circle. And that’s not as universal, or as personal. But it does matter just as much, and what it has to say about the future is essential.
Nope, I loved, but I think while Everything Everywhere All At Once is the movie of the moment, Nope, not Tár, might be the film we look back on in 20 years and say “Y’know what, that really was everything right there.” The more I think about it, I wonder if it will end up being one of, if not the film of the decade in the same way that many of us look back on The Wolf of Wall Street and The Social Network as the films that really define what the 2010s meant.
Petite Maman is the most precious film of the year, and the only reason it’s not a contender is its odd-to-fit-in release date. Besides EEAAO, this is the film you most need to see if you’ve made it this far.
For my thoughts on Armageddon Time, read my review of a different film, The 1970 Best International Feature, The Garden of Finzi-Continis. It’s all too much to get into.
Now on to the actual nominees:
All Quiet on the Western Front is a great war film that challenges Francois Truffaut’s famous saying “Every film about War ends up being pro-war,” hoping to make something truly anti-war. It comes very close, but all you have to do is inventory who in your life has breathlessly recommended it to you to know that Truffaut is probably right, the camera still loves war a little too much. It is, however, a gigantic step towards that unreachable film that ends all war.
Avatar: The Way of Water, is the most personal film of one of our greatest filmmakers, maybe ever. A writer who usually focused on the mechanics of story and not so much his themes, if you know anything about James Cameron’s life, you’ll know that he is both the rebellious son and the disapproving father. His own dad is one of the most famously disapproving fathers in all of movie history, while James Cameron was once on the receiving end of an intervention by his own children for “being an asshole dad.” To write a story about what it means to learn to be a good father deserved a screenplay nomination on a metatextual level for the same reason that yes, The Fablemans is only as special as it is because the main character is a young Steven Spielberg. What we know about an artist can and should inform our understanding of the art, and I say this: Avatar freaking rules. But it won’t win because 3 sequels are on their way.
Elvis. It’s a ghost story, it’s a masterpiece, it’s not very accurate, and it’s not going to win. It was once the favorite for a ranked-choice-ballot split, 3rd place winner, but since December, its grip on third place has weakened and slipped away. Baz Lurhman and Tom Hanks both seemed missing from much of the campaign, leaving Austin Butler to carry it to a lot of acting awards.
I may have been in one of the only packed screenings of Women Talking in the whole of the United States of America, and I have no clue why my town was different. It’s a great film, but it ceded its place in this race when it, not once but twice, moved its wide release date back to get out of the way of other films. It played the game of chicken, and it ended up going wide in January, weeks after the word of mouth from its limited release had died down.
Triangle of Sadness is here because of its strong reception from the European voting bloc, but it also has a lot of support among actors as well. However, when put up against Tár, I don’t think that’s going to be a big factor. I liked it when I saw it, but what stood out to me the most was that afterwards, an elderly wasp dressed like a finance bro turned to my brother and I and said “Well, I think that may just be the worst movie I’ve ever seen.” So it certainly angers the people it wants to anger. I tend to forget it exists, and yet, I’ll probably buy the Criterion.
In a perfect world, the contest would be about if EEAAO can really beat out The Fablemans, but unfortunately, the answer is unequivocally yes. Spielberg is at his most surreal, subtly transgressive best here with a devastating shot in a mirror I think about every time I face a choice between family and film, and it has a new entry in the top 10 best ending shots of all time. More than any of all of this, I consider it a genuinely holy film, a confession by the greatest director of all time. For decades, he lied to us about why his parents got divorced, and here he lays open for the whole world why, and why he’s afraid of himself. This film is his “with great power comes great responsibility,” and everyone one of us owes it to ourselves to see it. You’ll learn more about yourself, the cultural world he made for us, and the world we’re entering as social media make voyeurs of us all.
My father and brother were angry that I took them to The Banshees of Inisherin, yet 3 days later my dad went “That better win best picture,” and it might! Yet just like Elvis before it, once it built momentum on the campaign trail, it couldn’t hold on to it. This movie is what film is all about, and it suffers from saying many of the things the 3 other favorites have to say, but just a little quieter.
Lydia Tár would be an EGOT in any other year, and yet, it might not win an Oscar. Even though when it was finished, I thought that it might deserve every category. It is a dream, a precise, waking dream. It’s also the funniest feature in the bunch, and it’s not even a comedy. Cate Blanchett really does create a real person on the silver screen, and Todd Field calibrates every camera move down to within an inch of perfection. The Fablemans may have the best ending shot of the year, but Tár has the most unexpected. Many believe this film should be winning everything, and yeah, probably. But part of what makes the Best Picture is the timing of the film’s release, and of the race. And every day, the last two favorites just grow more resonant with the time at hand at a faster pace.
Top Gun: Maverick, the highest-grossing film of the year, came at just the right time to save theaters. It’s not really about war, but about the war on the movie star, branding Tom Cruise the last great movie star as he annoints a new generation. It’s maybe the most fun you could have with a packed crowd this year, shots that are best counted in frames, not seconds, are seared into my brain at 30 feet tall. This will be the film that the public will ask “Why didn’t that win?” and the answer will be: it probably could have tried a little harder. Tom Cruise may have saved the movies, but he also once jumped on Oprah’s couch, and the movie star that he is today takes a lot fewer risks in public than he does when jumping out of airplanes. Not having its lead actor out campaigning every day has hurt this film’s chances, but I think if you asked Tom Cruise, the mission’s already accomplished. The audience loves it.
When I first went to Everything Everywhere All At Once, I took my dad. We thought were just going to see a Matrix riff. Instead, I cried, I laughed, I couldn’t believe we were allowed to do that, I didn’t realize we could make films like that. It confronted unspoken rules I didn’t even know I believed. I monologued about the film for two straight hours over dinner, and when I got home, I called all my closest friends and told them to go see it. Three days later, I saw it again, and I called my friend, film critic Thomas Manning III, and we talked for an hour. I told him it had to win the Oscar, he said it wasn’t going to be able to maintain a campaign from April to March. And yet here we are. I’ve now seen EEAAO 6 times, 5 of which were in theaters. I lend out my Blu-Ray on the regular. When coworkers went to see it during its initial run, they’d find everything bagels with googley eyes on them waiting at their desks the next morning. From the conversation I had with Thomas after that 2nd viewing, I wrote a review that I still stand by, even though the Daniels thought it was “pretty hyperbolous.”
I’ve seen this film compared to my generation’s The Graduate, I’ve heard younger people say that older people just don’t get it. But some older people do get it, and I think it’s different than what The Graduate did for people in the 70s. We live in a time of never-before-seen pressure on the consciousness; the first generations of kids who grew up on the internet grew up a while ago, and they’re adults in a way that no one has been an adult before. And that’s really hard and fun and depressing and a lot. I’ve never felt as seen by a piece of art as I was when Jobu Tupaki compared the existential task of trying to fit her fractured sense of identity into one object to putting everything on a bagel. An object with too much on it, something missing at the heart of it, too salty and too tasty at the same time. Holdable in the palm of your hand, messy if you eat it wrong, not for everyone, dangerous in excess. Life led by cellphone.
Everything Everywhere All At Once is going to win Best Picture because it won the DGA, PGA, WGA and SAG awards, only the 5th film to ever do so. Its predecessors, American Beauty, Argo, No Country for Old Men, and Slumdog Millionaire all won Original Screenplay, Best Director, and Best Picture. Everything Everywhere All At Once will win because it’s a statistical lock. Everything Everywhere All At Once will win because it’s the best piece of art. Everything Everywhere All At Once will win because the Daniels raised a key in the air and unlocked the sky, showing us new heights to reach for.
On the eve of victory, still a little hyperbolous?
My prediction: Everything Everywhere All At Once
My Choice: Everything Everywhere All At Once
Current Favorite on DraftKings: Everything Everywhere All At Once
